In one of my previous articles, I discussed how the geopolitical landscape resembles a religious war, and I predicted that India would be perceived as a long-term problem by other countries—a scenario that is currently unfolding. Amidst these global adversities, it feels like we are living through the greatest war of all time—a war of narrative and perception. It seems as though everything that could go wrong has indeed gone wrong. Recent developments in Bangladesh have thrown up a slicing number of security-related issues for India.
By now, all of us are aware of what happened in Bangladesh. It all started with students protest on June 31, 2024, when it was found that the High Court of Bangladesh reintroduced the controversial quota system on the 5th of June 2024. The students took to the streets and began blocking roads and railway lines. They were so fired up that they blocked roads and even train tracks, causing a real chaos. But to understand this quota system, one needs to understand Bangladesh's freedom movement.
History of Bangladesh which lead to protest
Immediately after partition in 1947, Bangladesh was named East Pakistan and was a part of Pakistan. Since the partition was on religious grounds, no doubt Pakistan consisted of a majority of Muslims.
Initially, both East and West Pakistan were unified with the belief that they would exist together as one piece of land. Even though East Pakistan consisted of a larger population, most of the nation's money was spent in West Pakistan. Urdu was announced as the official language for both East and West Pakistan, adding to the sense of discrimination against Bengalis residing in East Pakistan.
1970 had two major occurrences. In the year that the East Pakistan Cyclone Bhola raged, killing 300,000 to 500,000 people, the West Pakistani response was negligible. A month later, the first general elections ever to be held in Pakistan, won Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of the Awami League as East Pakistan 160 of the 162 seats, while the PPP of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto won just 81 of the 138 from West Pakistan. This result meant the Awami League could form a government, leading to political power for the first time in East Pakistan. However, Pakistani leaders from the Western Wing, inclusive of the military under Yahya Khan, refused to recognize the results and thus unleashed a civil disobedience movement in East Pakistan under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
It was on March 7, 1971, that Mujibur Rahman Sheikh Hasina’s called all Bengalis to unity and made an epoch-making speech from the Racecourse Ground of Dhaka, putting the demand of independence for Bangladesh. It was on March 25, 1971, that the killing of thousands of civilians by West Pakistan forces in East Pakistan led to the formation of resistance group “Mukti Bahini” as a result of Operation Searchlight. Finally, in December 1971, with the help of the Indian government and the Indian army, Mukti Bahini defeated the West Pakistani forces and Bangladesh was independent. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman became the first Prime Minister of Bangladesh.
What is the background of Bangladesh Protests?
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman pledged a special quota for freedom fighters and women who were violated by the war. The first system of 30% of jobs for freedom fighters, 10% for women who had been at the hands of atrocities, and 40% for those from backward districts made it through. Then came the quota system, which diluted as time went by. The freedom fighters died, and 1997 and 2010 made provisions for freedom fighters' children and grandchildren. By 2018, only 44% of government jobs had a basis in merit, resulting in widespread protest by students against the quota system. Bangladesh economy went down and there was no private job. So, youngsters had to depend on government jobs. That’s why they started protesting against the quota system.
The protests only ended when the government agreed to abolish the quota system. In 2024, a High Court verdict on 5 June 2024 reached a decision based on a petition by the relatives of freedom fighters and declared the abolition of the quota system as unconstitutional and reinstated it. Students once again hit the streets, protesting Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Hasina had lost her popularity and trust amongst the people. Students continued to blame Hasina because of her huge influence and the previous decisions concerning the system.
Protests increased manifolds with students blocking roads and railway services and hacking government websites. In July 2024, the situation deteriorated as excessive force was used against the protesters, leading to widespread violence and deaths. Finally, the Supreme Court intervened and reversed the verdict of the High Court, restricting the quota to 7%, but protests didn't stop rather further demands came for complete removal of quota and accountability from Hasina's government.
By August, demonstrations had turned into a non-cooperation movement with boycotting classes by students, demanding tax resistance. The government responded in a violent manner, with many people getting killed. The protesters laid siege to the official residence of Hasina following which her security team asked her to leave as the situation was getting dangerous. After things went out of control and when General Shafiuddin Ahmed gave a 45-minute ultimatum to Sheikh Hasina, and she had to flee the country.
India and its neighborhood relations
Let's first take a look at the east neighbors of India. Myanmar completely unraveled now. The military is losing control, and we don't know what will happen there. Six months from now. Then there is Nepal. Nepal is a country with which we've had an up and down relationship, in fact, since the Modi government came in. Early on, they made big strides in Nepal. With Prime Minister Modi's first visit to Nepal, he was hailed as a hero. He drew big crowds and then the relationship collapsed. So, if you look at the east, combined with Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal. I'm not saying Nepal is a hostile country, I'm just saying that there are questions there and that is what exposes all of India’s East and the Northeast now in a manner that nobody would have imagined 10 years earlier.
If you look at all of India's neighborhood it seems like a is a perfect storm situation. On the other hand, we already know Pakistan is always hostile. And now hostile Bangladesh under the new regime, whatever comes up also in terms of public opinion, State Street opinion for quite some time will remain hostile. It will need a very mature statesman leadership in Bangladesh or maybe really modern. We don't know who will take over or who runs. However, whoever runs the government will have to convince the people that India is not an enemy, until that happens, India will put Bangladesh also after this unraveling in the hostile category. So, Pakistan on the West, Bangladesh on the east, as hostile powers in our neighborhood, two largest neighbors that we have. Then you have neighbors who are either compromised or ambivalent and who are tense with us. Nepal has a tense relationship with us. Maldives has a very tense relationship with us. Pakistan forever tense relationship, and we all know about China too.
How will Bangladesh situation affect India?
India now faces three military-led governments. On the west lies China-backed Myanmar with the military government led by Min Aung Hlaing, who captured power in 2021; then there is undeclared military rule in Pakistan; and now Bangladesh. If these countries receive substantial support from a major power like China or the US, how can it be good for India is now surrounded on three sides by authoritarian governments and, if you count China, on four sides.
Whenever such developments happen in Bangladesh, the first impact is on India, not just because of security concerns but also because of illegal immigrants. The STF has issued a high alert on the India-Bangladesh border because there is a significant concern that there could be an overflow of illegal immigrants who might feel persecuted in Bangladesh at this time. A large number of these immigrants could be Bangladeshi Hindus.
Now the big question is whether the interim government that comes will be from another party or if it will be a complete military government. It will be interesting to see, but during all this, some articles have suggested that Hindus have already started facing increased violence.
Is US Involved in Bangladesh situation?
It was reported earlier this year that the US proclaimed that the elections in Bangladesh were not free, adding to other questions as to whether the US was somewhat meddling with the affairs of Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina went on record to say that if they allowed a US military base in Bangladesh, the elections would have passed smoothly. Shaikh Hasina did have total control over Bangladesh and was called a dictator however if the third country in involved in overthrowing her then it's still not people's justice. This new-fangled interest in Bangladesh gives rise to the belief that the US wants to influence politics in Bay of Bengal and the Pacific, though not as a matter of simply countering China, but also because it wants to take on board that India does not become a bigger rival than China. To maintain this power balance, the US seeks to establish a presence in the region, overseeing the politics of China, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India.
Another speculation is that if a new government forms in Bangladesh, the US might suddenly favor Bangladesh with many IMF loans, deals, and alliances.US actions, even humanitarian aid, are often for long-term gain. However, we all need to remember it is a speculation only. From a broader perspective, these actions could all be a maintaining of the power balance, with China remaining a factor. It will be so interesting to observe the impact on India.
0 Comments